Colombia’s presidential race is between two models: far-right neoliberalism and progressivism

This Sunday, June 21, the people of Colombia will head to the polls to decide who the next president of their country will be. 41 million people are eligible to vote in the run-off election between progressive Iván Cepeda and right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella.

De la Espriella, who has served as a high-profile attorney, adopted a hyper-personalistic campaign strategy promising more neoliberalism for Colombia, the dismantling of the country’s historic peace process and rights won by oppressed communities. De la Espriella has received the open and explicit endorsement of a range of far-right politicians including US President Donald Trump, Argentine President Javier Milei, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, as well as several right-wing legislators in the US.

Leftist Iván Cepeda, on the other hand, has promised to continue Gustavo Petro’s social reforms and advance the peace process, of which he has been, as a senator, one of the main promoters.

The far-right lawyer was able to win the first round of elections thanks to the huge number of votes that shifted from Paloma Valencia’s campaign (the candidate backed by former far-right President Álvaro Uribe) to his own. Valencia barely reached 6.92% of the vote, after having been in second place in the polls for several weeks. 

Espriella garnered 43.74% of the vote, while Cepeda came in second with 40.9%.

Read more: Progressive Cepeda and US-backed de la Espriella to face off for Colombia’s presidency

Cepeda: continuity, society, and progressivism

To better understand the implications of the election in Colombia, BreakThrough News spoke with Laura Capote, who serves as Coordinator of the Continental Operational Secretariat of ALBA Movimientos. She told us that two clearly distinct economic, political, and social agendas are competing in the South American country. On the one hand, she stated, there is Cepeda’s candidacy, which represents “the continuity of the government and the Historic Pact – a progressive agenda prioritizing social justice and the redistribution of wealth. The data from the end of the government’s term demonstrate this: historic reductions in inequality, hunger, poverty, and unemployment.”

In addition, the ALBA leader said that Cepeda’s candidacy aims to invert certain political priorities: “It is a project that has also focused on defending and protecting the environmental commons and sovereignty, as well as regional integration – beyond the greed and desire for territorial control held, in this case, by the United States on our continent.”

In the process of subordinating the interests of the US and upholding sovereignty, Colombia has become a voice in defense of human rights on the international stage, particularly by taking a “firm stance regarding the genocide committed against the Palestinian people.”

Capote said, “Candidate Iván Cepeda has come out strongly against fracking, arguing that Colombia has, in fact, led one of the most successful examples of energy transition and the shift to non-fossil fuels over the past four years.” By seeking productive alternatives to oil for energy, Iván Cepeda and Aida Quilcué, the candidates for the Pacto Histórico, are grounding their campaign in the “defense of life.” That has been the slogan: “take a stand for life.” For the campaign, committing to the continuation of these changes is continuing to defend human rights. “It is worth noting that Iván Cepeda is one of the most prominent figures in the defense of human rights and the struggle for human rights in our country,” stated Capote.

De la Espriella: the far right and radicalized neoliberalism

On the other hand, regarding De la Espriella, Laura Capote said he is well-known in Colombia for serving as a defense attorney for convicted paramilitaries and drug traffickers. Constant scandals have also contributed to his infamy. 

“A few days ago, candidate Cepeda himself denounced him for a corruption scandal involving the embezzlement of healthcare funds,” said the Coordinator of the Continental Operational Secretariat of ALBA Movimientos. 

She added that he was also denounced for his involvement with paramilitary groups. Not just as a defense attorney for them, but “as someone who participated in committing crimes himself.”

Espriella’s candidacy, Capote argues, represents “the entire national right wing” and far right as well.

Read more: Colombian government decries ‘illegal’ bid to suspend Petro amid presidential election

Aligning himself with the region’s far-right figures, like Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele, Espriella “received support and congratulations from Donald Trump” on his first round victory.

Capote highlighted some of the far-right candidate’s “regressive views” on various issues: “With comments and a track record of misogyny, defending rapists, and discriminating against women and same-sex couples. He seeks to curtail the rights of same-sex couples and women in general, and shows, let’s say, zero concern for environmental issues and, of course, wealth redistribution. With this mindset that the poor are poor because they choose to be, he also contributes to that divide in that sense.”

Regarding the similarities between De la Espriella economic policy and that of other far-right presidents in Latin America, Capote said: “Economically, it would undoubtedly be a disaster. He has even spoken of dollarizing the economy. We hear many echoes of Argentina in these statements – which are very much copy-and-paste versions of Javier Milei’s rhetoric – and, of course, this would be terrible news for continental sovereignty in regional terms.”

In fact, Argentine President Javier Milei didn’t want to be left behind and publicly stated his support for the Colombian far right (just as Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and several US Republican senators had previously done on social media by expressing support for De la Espriella), which explains a certain ideological unity among these politicians. 

“My full support goes to Abelardo de la Espriella for the runoff election on June 21!!!,” Milei wrote. “We spoke on the phone today and agreed on something fundamental: this is Colombia’s moment. The path is clear: more economic freedom, more security, more trade, and zero tolerance for transnational organized crime and drug trafficking.”

Inconclusive polls

And while the polls have been inaccurate in recent elections, it’s impossible not to pay close attention to them. According to the polling firms Guramo and Ecoanalítica, De la Espriella could receive 52.6% of the vote, while Cepeda would barely reach 45%. The remaining 2.4% consist of invalid votes.

According to the polling firm Centro Nacional de Consultoría, De la Espriella will receive 48.6%, while Cepeda less than 45%. AtlasIntel states that the far right will receive 52.2% and the Pacto Histórico candidate about 44.5%.

On the other hand, Celag Data claims that Cepeda will win by a very narrow margin. According to the polling firm, Cepeda will receive 40.8%, while De la Espriella will receive 39.7%.

And the high level of polarization we’re seeing comes as no surprise. According to Laura, the candidates’ platforms are clearly at odds with one another: 

“These are two models – political and economic, of course – where one economic model focuses on the redistribution of wealth and sustaining a state that supports the most vulnerable, while the other focuses on a smaller state. What De la Espriella proposes is a 40% reduction in the Colombian state, massive layoffs of public sector workers, among many other measures that, of course, favor free-market competition. And, of course, they affect workers’ rights. Abelardo de la Espriella proposes profiting from oil extraction through fracking, regardless of its environmental and social consequences.”