Mexican pollsters begin surveys for ruling party Morena’s internal elections

Mexico’s ruling progressive party, the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), on August 18, approved four polling companies for its internal electoral process. The polling houses, selected via lottery the day before, will conduct surveys to determine who will be the party’s candidate for the 2024 presidential elections. The surveys will be carried out across the country between August 23 and September 3. Their results will be made public on September 6, when they will announce the name of the presidential candidate for the June 2024 elections.

The pollsters selected were proposed by presidential candidates Claudia Sheinbaum, Marcelo Ebrard, Manuel Velasco and Adán Augusto López. Morena’s president Mario Delgado told local media late Friday that the company suggested by former foreign minister Ebrard was included after former senator Ricardo Monreal, another candidate, withdrew his proposal for the company chosen by lottery system.

In another statement on Saturday, Delgado explained that the candidates whose suggested polling companies had been selected would not have any advantage, given they will be accompanied by representatives of the other hopefuls when carrying out the surveys. Each candidate will have 350 representatives to monitor the process.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has vowed not to interfere in the candidate’s selection. Whoever is chosen will be in a strong position to become Mexico’s next president, due to President AMLO’s high popularity. AMLO currently has an approval rating of over 60%.

Many sectors of the country’s working class have praised the AMLO government for its comprehensive economic and social policies, and hundreds of thousands have participated in mass mobilizations in support of the Fourth Transformation of the country led by the Morena party.

Some of the accomplishments of the AMLO administration include a decline in poverty, an increase in minimum daily wage and average annual salary, and a strengthening of the national currency, the Mexican Peso. The government’s social policies such as soft loans, decent pensions for the elderly, support programs for people with disabilities, single mothers, farmers and fishermen, scholarships for students from poor families, and free Internet for all, have helped uplift the socio-economic status of the Mexican working class.

President AMLO has indicated on many occasions that any candidate from his party who replaces him in government will continue these policies.

There are six candidates contesting in the internal elections: former Mexico City head of government Sheinbaum, former foreign minister Ebrard, former deputy Gerardo Fernández Noroña, former senator Monreal, former Tabasco governor Augusto López, and former Chiapas governor Velasco.

According to different opinion polls, Sheinbaum is leading in the race to become Morena’s presidential candidate by 10 percentage points.

A survey carried out from July 30 to August 4 by the polling firm Parametria showed that 32% of the general public supported Sheinbaum to be candidate for the ruling party. Following her is Ebrard with 20% of support. Other hopefuls received less than 10% support.

Another survey by research firm Consulta Mitofsky also showed that Sheinbaum and Ebrard are the main contenders for the candidacy. Sheinbaum is leading the race with 32.6% support, followed by Ebrard with 23.4% support.